With recent announcements that Kennesaw and the City of Milton are moving to enable their citizens to vote on Sunday Sales of packaged alcohol, there is a real possibility of Sunday Sales referenda sweeping the northern suburbs this November. But local politicians may be doing a disservice to both themselves and their voters if they fail to hold off until next year.

Politicians seeking re-election can usually take comfort in the predictability of the electorate. Not only voters propensity to reelect incumbents, but in the propensity of nonvoters to stay home.

Entropy at the ballot box is especially threatening for local politicians whose elections are held in odd-numbered "off-years."

Take the City of Johns Creek as an example, as I am most familiar with its electorate -- having run municipal campaigns there in 2006 and 2010 -- but the principles hold true for most other cities.

Johns Creek candidates can generally count on roughly 1,600 voters showing up in an off-year election, when they're held. I say that last part because in 2009, city elections were cancelled for want of opponents to the incumbent members. By and large, it will be the same 1,600 voters every time with small changes for population growth and voter attrition.

But in November, 2010, the first Johns Creek City Council elections to coincide with a statewide general election, more than 20,000 Johns Creek residents cast ballots, a ten-fold increase.

Not only are off-year voters more scarce than general election voters, they may hold significantly different opinions. And it takes far fewer to skew the results against the preferences of a majority of voters in the city.

A recent poll by the Beacon Broadcast Network (BBN) found that 77 percent of voters in Johns Creek would vote to allow Sunday sales. If we assume for now that 2,000 voters will show up in City elections this November, the measure would pass with 1,540 votes and opponents would comprise 460 voters.

But it only requires an additional 1,081 no-votes out of more than 44,000 registered voters to defeat the measure and overturn the will of most voters. Imagine if every preacher in the area took to his or her pulpit during the month of October to preach against Sunday alcohol sales. Proponents of package sales might be shocked and defeated.

One of the most-widespread arguments during the legislative fight that ultimately led to Sunday sales even being an option was that local voters should have the final choice. The above example shows that the timing of the vote will determine how many voters participate and how many are effectively disenfranchised.

And this leads to the dilemma for local politicians considering putting Sunday sales to a vote this year. Do they gain more by scheduling the election this year and showing that they're responsive to their voter, or by delaying a vote until 2012 and enabling a majority of voters to effectively participate in the process?

The wildcard is that either decision may affect the fortunes of the local council members who are on this year's ballot. Leaving Sunday sales on the table until next year may leave them open to charges of thwarting the majority's will to buy alcohol on Sunday. But the greater perceived threat may be a large influx of voters who normally don’t vote in these obscure elections, and that may be more dangerous to incumbents.

The best solution may lie in taking steps this year to ensure that the question is on the 2012 ballot. This guarantees voters their concerns are being heard and addressed while simultaneously ensuring maximum participation in the referenda. Coincidentally, it may benefit local incumbents as well.

Todd Rehm may be contacted by email at todd@toddrehm.com or by visiting www.toddrehm.com

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