Cover Stories /
Republicans Poised For Historic Victory As Democrats Go Into Georgia Meltdown
If you play it by the numbers, then Tuesday could be "The Night The Lights Went Out In Georgia" for statewide Democrats.
And then there were none.
If you play it by the numbers, then Tuesday could be "The Night The Lights Went Out In Georgia" for statewide Democrats.
Virtually all polls now indicate that Georgia Republicans will win every statewide constitutional seat on Tuesday night. The Democrats control only three state offices: Attorney General, Commissioner of Agriculture and Commissioner of Labor. All three will likely go Republican: GOP candidates Sam Olens, Gary Black and Mark Butler, respectively, have built up seemingly insurmountable leads going into Tuesday's election. Their victory will give Georgia Republicans a clean sweep of all statewide offices, as the ones the GOP now controls are at no risk of a Democrat switchover. These include Lt. Governor, Commissioner of Insurance, Secretary of State, State School Superintendent and D-2 Public Service Commissioner.
If this electoral scenario plays out, the Georgia Democrats will have no statewide offices for the first time since Reconstruction.
Prediction: Senator Johnny Isakson Wins Big, Republicans Sweep The Statewide Board. Lights Out.
GEORGIA GOVERNOR'S RACE

Democrat gubernatorial candidate Roy Barnes' [pictured right] best hope for pullingout a counter-trend victory lies with a highly unlikely run-off strategy. Barnes needs himself and Libertarian Gov. candidate John Monds to hold Republican Nathan Deal to less than 50 percent on Election Day, then pray for another Deal disaster before December. It's a wing a prayer play, with little to no chance of success.
Deal will capture the Georgia governorship with an outright win on November 2. Here are the three reasons why. One: Barnes is not gaining any late poll traction. His campaign has been a non-starter from the get-go, and he has failed to generate enthusiasm from his Fulton base. Negative ads and Hail Mary passes about Deal's personal financial troubles or alleged campaign law ethics violations haven't resonated in the least bit. When Georgia unemployment is an effective 15 percent, the message is jobs, not how much Deal's private campaign airplane costs or what he may or may not owe from his daughter's failed retail company.
Two: the inevitable collapse of the Libertarian vote. Some recent polls show Monds at over 5 percent of the vote. This is mythical. Monds will end up with around three percent, as history shows that Georgia Republicans and Independents don't like to waste their vote. This contributes to putting Deal over the all-important 50 percent mark come election eve.
Three: here's Johnny. The very popular Isakson re-election campaign juggernaut is annihilating his under-funded and hapless Democrat opponent, Labor Commissioner Mark Thurmond. Right now, Isakson, at the top of the ticket on the ballot, is polling near 60 percent. That means those who punch Isakson's ticket have to change horses one level down. This factor alone gets Deal another two to three percent of the vote by virtue of Republican ballot osmosis. But all is not lost for Barnes. He'll go back to his law firm and keep earning $5 million per year. Maybe when its over, he'll give Deal a loan to get out of debt. At a handsome interest rate, of course.
Prediction: Deal: 53 Percent, Barnes: 44 Percent, Monds: 3 Percent. Ouch.
GEORGIA'S CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION
Currently the Democrats hold six of the state's 13 Congressional Districts. Four seats are now in play. Three are likely to go red.
Austin Scott (R) [pictured] is going to defeat Rep. Jim Marshall (D) in the 8th
District in Central Georgia and Mike Keown (R) will win the 2nd District in Southwest Georgia by ousting Sanford Bishop (D).
But it's the 12th Congressional District in eastern Georgia that will make the headlines. There, Republican Ray McKinney, a nuclear plant project manager and a Tea Party favorite is now poised to upset Democrat John Barrow of Savannah.
That will leave the Democrats with only three members in the Georgia Congressional delegation: Veteran Civil Rights icon John Lewis, Dekalb's Hank Johnson and Atlanta's David Scott.
The Republicans will gain another CD seat in 2012, and with majorities in both chambers at the state capitol, it will certainly be a GOP dominated seat, giving them 11 of 14 CD's come 2012.
Prediction: Georgia Republicans Gain Three CD Seats, Control 10 of 13.
GEORGIA STATE HOUSE AND SENATE
Republicans are expecting a net gain of one to two state senate seats: Gary Guan in Gwinnett's District 5 and perhaps Beth Beskin in District 38. In the House, GOP insiders see a net gain of four. The key for the House GOP caucus is holding on to Jill Chamber's seat in Dekalb. The Republican incumbent, always in a tight battle, is now throttled because a Dekalb judge froze her campaign account in October when she filed for personal bankruptcy, so Chambers has no access to campaign funds on her own.
Prediction: GOP Nets Plus Two State Senate Seats And Plus Four House Seats.
THE NATIONAL CLIMATE: HOUSE AND SENATE
The conservative Tsunami is about to hit. And the Democrats can't stop it.
According to The Cook Political Report, 23 Democratic House seats are now all but history.
It lists another 47 seats now held by Democrats as tossups or leaning Republican.
Those are all going GOP. That makes 70.
Then, he lists 46 Democratic seats as leaning or likely Democrat but not solidly so,
and puts them in play.
Republicans will win four of those, too.
Prediction: GOP Finishes The Election With A Net Gain of +74 Seats In The House
On the Senate side, Republicans have a shot to take control by winning 10 seats.
They hold no seats that are at risk.
Here is how they can pull it off, in four phases.
Phase One = +4
Democratic-held seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas and Wisconsin are certain Republican pickups. Democrats aren't bothering to contest the open Senate seat in North Dakota, where Gov. John Hoeven will be the winner; the Indiana Dem candidate, Rep. Brad Ellsworth is getting blown out; incumbent Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) is down by double digits with three days to go and ultra liberal Sen. Russ Feingold in Wisconsin (D) ran ads supporting President Obama's agenda that moved his numbers south by five points in a week. Feingold is now getting thumped. He's already called the moving van.
Phase Two = +1
In Pennsylvania, former congressman Pat Toomey, the Republican, has maintained a steady lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak.
Phase Three = +4
Polling in Colorado, Nevada, Illinois and West Virginia indicate each race is dead even. But in every case the Republican candidate has the momentum. When a Tsunami hits, it's logical to think the conservative, anti-incumbent candidates will pull enough votes to benefit from the ensuing tidal wave.
Phase Four = +2
Go west, young man. First Washington State. Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is in big trouble in her re-election bid against Republican Dino Rossi. Murray's six-point polling lead has evaporated in the last 72 hours. See 'ya, Patty. Don't let the door hit you on the way out, by the way.
Next, California, where voters have not sealed the deal with their incumbent, Barbara Boxer. Carly Fiorna overcame cancer last year. She'll overtake Boxer at the last minute.
Prediction: Republicans Win The Senate By Capturing 11 Seats
It's called a Tsunami.
- The last democrat
- Graves, Broun Block Boehner Compromise
- Graves: Cut, Cap And Balance... Or Bust (07.28.11)
- Chambliss Pledges No Compromise On Debt-Ceiling
- Chambliss May Be Key To Budget Deal
- Georgia's Immigration Law "Thrashed" (06.28.11)
- In Defense of Denise Deal (06.10.11)
- Georgia's New Congressional Map Takes Shape (06.01.11)
- The Deal To Downgrade
- The last democrat
- Graves, Broun Block Boehner Compromise
- Graves: Cut, Cap And Balance... Or Bust (07.28.11)
- Deal Fills Fulton County Superior Court Judgeship (07.28.11)
- Follow The Money in CD 14 (07.28.11)
- North Fulton's Golden Corridor Now The Medical Mecca (07.26.11)
- Do You Know Your Antioxidant Score? (07.26.11)