By Paul Kaplan / STAFF

Last of a 3-part series

For much of the past two decades, the political leadership in Roswell has been extremely stable. The turnover, when there were any changes at all, have usually occurred when City Council members retired or died.

The main exception was 12 years ago, when Jere Wood, who had lost in two previous bids for the Council, defeated longtime Mayor Pub Mabry by tapping into the voters’ frustration over the wildfire growth sweeping across the Northside. His infamous winning campaign slogan in 1995 was ‘stop the sprawl.’

THIS YEAR DIFFERENT

But 2009 is shaping up to be different. This could be a year of historic change in Roswell’s leadership.

Ironically, it could start with Wood again.

The mayor this year is expected to face his first serious reelection challenge since he upset Mabry in 1997. Three veteran City Council members – Lori Henry, Jerry Orlans and David Tolleson – all say they are seriously considering running for mayor in November.

Henry and Orlans represent differing wings of the Council. Henry is a neighborhood-oriented, slow-growth proponent, while Orlans is the champion of business interests in the city. Tolleson is a centrist whose position on many issues tends to evolve over time.

If all three of them run for mayor, it will produce the most dramatic change on the City Council in a generation, and would remove 35 years of institutional knowledge from the board.

TSUNAMI OF CHANGE?

If one of the three defeats Wood – and that is not out of the question, given some of the mayor’s controversial positions in recent years – it would create a tsunami of change that could eventually push one of Georgia’s most important cities in new directions.

A fourth member of the City Council, Kent Igleheart, is up for re-election as well, but he’s proved himself to be a tough campaigner, and it’s unlikely that a serious candidate would challenge him when there are empty seats to be had.

Still, a turnover of three Council seats and possibly the mayor’s chair would represent unprecedented change at a difficult time. Like most cities, Roswell is facing revenue shortfalls due to the recession, and that means cutbacks and other budgeting headaches.

Plus, two of the city’s most veteran – and level-headed – Council members retired two years ago. The departure of Terry Joyner and Paula Winiski swept another 28 years of experience away from the seats of power.

ROOKIES COULD RULE

Their rookie replacements, Rich Dippolito and Becky Wynn, could conceivably become the senior members of Council six months from now. Current residents have never seen anything like this.

“There are people in the city who are concerned,” said Orlans, who says he is leaning toward giving up the Council seat he’s held for 17 years to run for mayor. “I’ve been out trying to find good qualified candidates to run for Council, but that’s getting harder and harder to do.”

With the economy in the tank, fewer people can afford public service. Running for citywide office takes a lot of time and money, and people are “hesitant about getting involved,” Orlans said. “It’s a concern.”

So, how is this likely to play out?

Candidates for the Council will emerge. They always do when there are open seats.

After years of little or no real challenges on the City Council, several interesting candidates emerged in 2007, when Joyner and Winiski retired.

FIELD WIDE OPEN

Look for some candidates to re-emerge this year from the list of those who were defeated in 2007. Among those who made an impression on voters were former Councilman Steve Dorvee, business executives Bruce Peoples and Charles Dilcher, retired executive Dennis FitzGerald, gun-rights advocate Phil Barnet and entrepeneur Bob Hagan.

And in a year when money issues will be front-and-center, budget gadfly and former candidate Bill Salamone could be a voice that voters want to hear from. Lee Fleck, an anti-immigration advocate, may also stir the pot.

Dorvee, Peoples and Barnet have told The Beacon they do not plan to run in 2009 but a lot can change in six months.

WOOD THE FOCAL POINT

And, as usual in Roswell, everything starts with Mayor Wood.

If he runs for re-election, as he says he is likely to do, it’s hard to imagine Orlans staying in the race. The two are friendly and share support from the business community. Both are political fixtures in Roswell, but Wood has the dual advantage of incumbency and the current absence of an angry and activist electorate – the wave of emotion that swept Wood into office 12 years ago.

Whoever emerges between Wood and Orlans would likely be vying in a runoff against either Henry or Tolleson.

Tolleson could have an advantage in that he is the only major candidate who lives in east Roswell. That is a politically active part of town, but it has never produced a mayor. Folks over there would love to have one of their own guiding the strong development interests in that corridor of the city, which is the gateway to booming Gwinnett County.

EAST ROSWELL RULES

Tolleson said it doesn’t matter that he’s from Willow Springs, one of east Roswell’s biggest and most prominent neighborhoods. “We are elected at large to serve the entire city,” he said. “I don’t want to create any artificial divides.”

His neighbors might see it a little differently. They remember that it was Mayor Wood, who lives in the far western end of Roswell, who supported Charlie Brown’s plan for 27-story high-rises in east Roswell two years ago.

On the other hand, it was Henry, another westsider, who helped spearhead the opposition to Brown’s project from Day One. At the time, Tolleson expressed concerns about the project, but, as is his usual approach, he said he wanted to hear all the facts before making a decision.

Tolleson eventually came to oppose Brown’s plan, but some eastsiders would have preferred more definitive – and earlier – opposition from Tolleson.

WOOD FOR STATE SENATE?

Wood has a long-standing interest in branching out politically by running for a state legislative seat, and if he decides to scratch that itch in November, it changes everything in Roswell.

For one thing, Orlans almost certainly would run for mayor. And it would completely alter the demeanor of the race, especially for Henry, who so dislikes Wood that she prefers not even being in the same room with him.

In a race against Wood, Henry almost certainly would position herself as the anti-Wood, someone not interested in “winning” battles, as she thinks Wood is, but in avoiding them in hopes of moving the city forward via consensus. That is terrain that Tolleson also wants to claim.

Some people in the city think Wood will quit the mayor’s race and try for a legislative seat because of the tough competition he’s likely to face in Roswell. Don’t bet on that. If Wood decided to seek a legislative seat, it would not be for that reason.

Wood actually enjoys a good tussle. He’d more likely be attracted by a hot mayoral race than turned off by it. When that very thought was expressed to Wood, this is what he said: “I think you’re right. But I hope it’s a good fight, not an ugly one.”

Good luck with that, mayor. Orlans and Tolleson might take the high road, but Henry may be unable to hide her disdain – and might not want to as the anti-Wood candidate.

HENRY TAKING NO PRISONERS

Henry will likely cast Wood as a divisive, self-centered, Machiavellian bully – all words she has used at one time or another to describe him.

On the other hand, if all of the main challengers for mayor are from the City Council, that could tamp down the negative attacks somewhat.

“How can you run against the government that you’re a part of?” Wood said.

Of course, that cuts both ways.

Wood will run a tough campaign, you can be sure of that, but he doesn’t feel the freedom to come out swinging, either.

“As an incumbent, I don’t think I have any choice but to run a positive campaign,” Wood said. “I can’t run from my record. Who do I have to blame but myself?”

Come late summer, that might be precisely what his opponents are saying on the stump.