Cover Stories /
Too Close To Call
It starts out a dead heat.
By John Fredericks / Staff
It starts out a dead heat.
A local voter survey by The Beacon last week showed the upcoming Roswell mayoral race a virtual three-way tie between incumbent Jere Wood and two veteran members of city council, Lori Henry and David Tolleson.
This race is as unpredictable as it gets. It can go any which way.
All three candidates registered a nearly identical 27 percent, with the remaining 19 percent undecided. If no candidate garners at least 50 percent of the total votes cast on Election Day, the city charter mandates a run-off in December between the two top vote getters.
SURVEY REVELATIONS
There were two potentially interesting revelations in the survey, and two confirmations of what we already suspected.
We’ll start with the confirmations.
This race is headed to a run-off. There is no electoral math that enables any of these candidates to capture over 50 percent, unless one of the three drop out, which is unlikely.
Tolleson’s support – east of the highway – is growing almost by the day. Unless Wood or Henry arrest his momentum, his vote base is likely to grow, and his East Roswell vote could eclipse his two opponents on election day, propelling him into the high thirty or low forty percent range.
There were a couple of surprises that came out of the survey.
Henry’s support is broader and deeper than we originally thought. It spans all four geographical quadrants, and cuts across all economic sectors. She polled the same in the poorest areas as she did in the wealthiest areas. This leads us to the conclusion that she has potential for vote growth.
Undecided voters, registering about one-fifth of those surveyed, may be the biggest shocker. Nearly 30 percent of those who said they were “undecided” added this disclaimer: “but definitely not Wood.” The survey had no prompt for this, nor did it beg or lead the question. This suggests that Wood’s negatives continue to run high, and have not abated.
DEBATE COULD BE DEFINITIVE
The campaign officially gets under way with an old-style, free-wheeling public debate this Thursday, August 13. Open to the public, it carries the potential to serve as a definitive moment in what is undoubtedly going to be a hotly contested election.
“I’m looking forward to it,” said Wood. “I like the lively format and it should be fun. I love a good debate. I am always excited to hear ideas about how we can make Roswell a better city, regardless of the source.” Wood added that he is pleased with the campaign’s tone. “I am pleased that so far this campaign is about issues, and not personalities.”
Tolleson claimed that his message of “unity and working together” was resonating with voters.” The councilman judged that he senses “a healing of wounds” in the city. He added that he is signing up “literally hundreds” of new volunteers, and was looking forward to “getting his message out” in the upcoming debate.
Henry was less effusive and more circumspect. “I am talking to voters every day, and I believe the issues I have championed and my specific vision for our future will provide us with the support we need to win this race,” she predicted.
At any rate, fasten your seatbelts; the race for Roswell’s next mayor is about to commute into full campaign mode this week. Right now, it’s anybody’s guess as to who will take the reigns as Roswell mayor come January 2010.
| Roswell Mayoral Debate Rules of Engagement |
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The debate is open to the public and the press, and will be carried live on Beaconcast.com IPTV as a pay-per view event for those who cannot attend.
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