News Analysis 

First of a four part series on Georgia's reapportionment

Where does 14 equal four?

According to results from the nation's 2010 census gatherers, Georgia's population growth over the last decade relative to other states increased enough to award it with a new 14^th U.S Congressional District (CD), effective with the 2012 election.

While it will be several months before the new Georgia Congressional district map is legally finalized, new lines have already been drawn, at least informally. GOP officials under the Gold Dome and in D.C. -- who control all the levers of state government and hold a 8-5 majority in the state's Congressional delegation -- are saying it's a done deal, save the formalities (and potential legal challenges).

The new Congressional District (CD) will likely encompass all or parts of four counties: Bartow, Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall, with a combined population of about 700,000.

In anticipation of the newly drawn seat, at least four northern arc Republican political heavyweights are making plans to run for the seat when the lines become official. And at least three of the four can lay claim to a both a natural support base and a slew of high-profile endorsements. The likely GOP primary candidates include House Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), State Sen. Jim Butterworth (R-Cornelia), State Sen. Chip Rogers (R-Cherokee) and radio talk show host Martha Zoller. A fifth potential candidate, Col. Michael Steele (Ret.) of "Black Hawk Down" fame, who toyed with a run for Gov. Nathan Deal's 9^th CD seat in 2010, says he's sitting this one out as well.

That leaves the fearsome four in the 14^th.

ANALYSIS – "THE BIG THREE"

Collins [pictured left] goes in with great advantages by virtue of an anticipated endorsement by Deal.

This fiat will give Collins access to Deal's entire political fundraising and ground game machine in Gainesville, which is quite formidable. We've learned three things about Deal politically since his gubernatorial run: he plays hardball; he plays to win, and he's very loyal. Collins, who serves as an officer in the Georgia Air National Guard will parlay Deal's endorsement with that of House Speaker David Ralston (R-Blue Ridge). Collins gained statewide notoriety in 2009. While serving his countrymen in Iraq, he asked to vote for Ralston for Speaker by proxy. But he was denied that opportunity because the GOP caucus did not have a proxy provision in its rules for current members serving overseas in the Armed Forces. This endeared him to Ralston, who, like Deal, is very loyal to his supporters. Deal and Ralston make a powerful endorsement duet for Collins coming out of the box.

Butterworth, a Captain for Delta Airlines doesn't currently live in the soon-to-be district, but he represents a contiguous portion of Habersham County, so residency may not be a major issue with voters (U.S. House members do not have to physically reside in the district they represent).  A colossal fundraiser who serves as the governor's floor leader in the state senate, Butterworth is a longtime ally of Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R), who also hails from Gainesville. First elected in 2008, Butterworth, savvy, smooth and smart, was quickly perceived as a rising star by his colleagues. But all that changed last year when his caucus teammates mutinied against the Lt. Gov., stripping Cagle of his committee chairman appointment powers in the infamous "Cagle Christmas Coup."

But Butterworth [pictured right] bucked his leadership caucus and stuck with Casey.

The ringleaders of the successfully orchestrated overthrow plot were Senate President Pro-Tem Tommie Williams (R-Lyons) and Rogers.

Cagle, also loyal -- and very popular in his hometown of Gainesville -- is expected to endorse his colleague, Butterworth, who incidentally is line to be Cagle’s appointee to the now Cagle Chaired Committee on Assignments.

A win for Butterworth would translate into a much-needed boost for Cagle, so one can calculate the crafty former local bank president will go all out to get his man in D.C.

Rogers [pictured below], who says he hasn't decided on the race, just moved to the southern banks of Cherokee County, where he'll need votes, so the smart money is on a Rogers bid.

If he runs, Rogers is immediately a major factor, based on his geographical base and intense Tea Party following. Rogers is immensely popular in Cherokee -- where he did the play by play for locally televised high school football games -- and he'll inherit a natural comfort zone in GOP vote-rich suburban South Forsyth. And he'll get his share of big name endorsements, too, including Williams. Rogers starts out by potentially dominating nearly a quarter of the new district's geographical base – an early edge the others can't claim. This alone puts him in play.

MARTHA'S VINEYARD: OF GRASS AND TEA

 Zoller's entry into the fray is the unpredictable wild card that could play out in any number of multiple scenarios. Although the on air personality starts out with no natural geographical vote base, she has a definitive and devoted dyed-in-the-wool legion of listeners -- the depth of which no one knows for sure. Can she translate that into votes? Zoller's strength is diametric. First, she's indefatigably charming: an admitted workaholic -- no other candidate will come close to out hustling her -- and she resonates personally with almost everyone she meets. Second, she'll position herself as the classic outsider: no favors, no paybacks, not beholden to anyone. Third, if she's the only woman (and the only mom) in a four or five candidate field she inherits the "Nikki Haley Halo Effect." Fourth, she'll likely galvanize the North Georgia Tea Party faithful that helped elect Tom Graves (R-9thCD), a relative unknown just 18 months ago, to Deal's old seat. If Zoller can effectively brand her opponents as the "ITP Big Three Gold Dome power elite", she just might inspire a majority of Tea Partiers to rally to her side, abandoning Rogers in the process.

On the flip side she may have a hard time raising enough money to stay competitive if she follows a traditional fundraising route. However, Zoller's husband is a successful area physician and could be dialed in to big donors amongst his colleagues. While no high profile endorsements normally mean no big name fundraisers and no political apparatus to inherit, Zoller [pictured below] has the connections to pull a rabbit or two out of a hat.

Zoller's candidacy would truly be a grassroots effort in the purest sense (juxtaposed to the campaign consultant class who throws the cliché around as mere political narrative).

Moreover, a Zoller upset in CD-14 would undoubtedly signify long-term Tea Party strength and viability, potentially reshaping the GOP primary landscape for the foreseeable future.

"No matter who enters this race, it is going to attract national attention," says Atlanta based political consultant Bernie Tokarz. "The real electoral firepower of the Tea Party movement in Georgia will be put to the test. Tea Party support was fragmented in 2010, so no conclusion could be drawn," he added. "This new district serves as the perfect springboard to statewide office, considering its balanced mix of rural and suburban Georgia. So all eyes will be on it, and a Zoller upset would reverberate across the country, and send a signal to the GOP establishment, putting them on notice."

Or, as Republican Presidential aspirant Steve Forbes said on the eve of his stunning 1996 upset over the heavily favored Bob Dole in the Arizona primary, "Tonight's victory marks the end of political punditry as we know it. Good riddance!"

Coming Friday: Sam Olens: In The Eye of The Redistricting Storm

emall: jfredericks@beaconcast.com 

To subscribe to BBN's E-newsletter (free) email: Beaconbroadcastnetwork@gmail.com