Last minute debt deal a day late and $4 trillion short

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August 29th, 2009
John Fredericks / Staff

ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL



With Friday’s local election filing deadline approaching, here is how North Fulton’s municipal races are shaping up, with a quick analysis of each race.


Shameless shill that I am, I can’t help myself in touting two upcoming Beacon broadcasts you won’t want to miss.


On Sunday, The Beacon launches North Fulton’s first-ever dedicated radio show, The Beacon Hour. It airs on Sunday from 11 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. on WGKA AM -920 on the dial. The first half hour is North Fulton High School Football with sports editor John Breach and Beacon beat writer Tim Altork. Sunday’s guest is Milton Eagles Head Coach Scott Walker, fresh off Friday night’s gut wrenching 19-16 loss to cross town rival Chattahoochee – at home no less.


The second segment is North Fulton news and politics with yours truly. My guests are the three amigos- the Roswell mayoral candidate strategists: Paul Kaplan for Lori Henry, Bruce Peoples for Jere Wood and Randy Whatley for David Tolleson.


Feel free to email me with your complaints after the first show (yeah, I’m an optimist): jfredericks@beaconcast.com.


Our next broadcast will be a live stream on Beaconcast.com of Tom Price’s Town Hall Meeting at Roswell High School on Tuesday at 7 p.m. No doubt we will have some fireworks from our left wing friends so it should be a lively event. Even my super liberal pal Joe Conason from the New York Observer, whose column we religiously carry every Sunday has promised to tune in. Although he chafes at being placed next to Michele Malkin and vows never to subscribe until we move him next to “better company.” I think he called his friends at moveon.org and Acorn and bought them Greyhound bus tickets to come to the show. They left yesterday. What are friends for, right?


ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL


With Friday’s local election filing deadline approaching, here is how North Fulton’s municipal races are shaping up, with a quick analysis of each race.


Roswell, Milton and Johns Creek require a 50 percent majority to win, or a run-off election is held in December between the two top vote getters. In Alpharetta, a simple plurality wins. The general election is November 3.


ROSWELL MAYOR


Mayor Jere Wood is locked in a tight three-way battle with Roswell Council members David Tolleson and Lori Henry. This race is wide-open and any candidate can win or make the run-off. Henry has gained the momentum, Wood is running on Roswell’s overall success and Tolleson is amassing an armada east of the highway that may break all known records. We have no idea who will win.


ROSWELL COUNCIL


Betty Price is the overwhelming favorite no matter who files against her.


Nancy Diamond may face dentist Peter Vanstrom, who is now odd-man out in the council sweepstakes. Diamond is the favorite. Vanstrom starts with no natural base, and it is unclear if he will even file next week.


Jim Pollock VS. Kent Igleheart (Incumbent). Pollock has a lot of endorsements and the top campaign strategist in his corner, but Igleheart is a very tough campaigner and has deftly put together a rare coalition of fiscal conservatives, tax cutters, social progressives, community activists and environmentalists. If this race were partisan, he would be the epitome of a blue dog Democrat in the Larry McDonald mold. He starts out as the odds on choice to capture a third term, but loss of support on the east side may make this race tighter than normal.


Lee Fleck VS. Jerry Orlans (Incumbent). No doubt Fleck is a character, but he has some very compelling issues on his side. This race will be closer than meets the eye. Orlans is vulnerable on a number of fronts, and he knows it.


ALPHARETTA COUNCIL


The two announced candidates are Tom Miller for post three and Aubrey Osteen for post two. Both have already launched campaigns complete with donors, fundraisers, websites and volunteers. Jim Kennedy is said to still be mulling which post to file for. But outgoing councilman John Monson has reportedly convinced Kennedy to challenge Miller. Kim Matherly, Chairwoman of the Windward Business Center Association is expected to run against Osteen.


Miller is the big favorite. If Kennedy aligns himself with Monson, you can stick a fork in his campaign, its done. Matherly and Osteen would be anyone’s guess at this point, but Osteen knows what he’s doing, so that gives him the edge.


MILTON MAYOR


Opposed or unopposed, Joe Lockwood is getting re-elected. It’s go Joe and mo-Joe.


MILTON COUNCIL


Tina D’Aversa is not likely to get opposition. Bill Lusk and Karen Thurman hope they don’t, but it’s been much too quiet for their comfort. We’ll find out next week as several potential candidates have now expressed interest.


No one knows what Julie Zahner-Bailey may or may not do. Maybe they’ll pop a big one at 4:59 p.m. on Friday, who knows?


JOHNS CREEK MAYOR


Yawn. Wake me up when the election is over. Mike Bodker returns for another term. He’s the King of Johns Creek, and kings don’t have to run in elections.


JOHNS CREEK COUNCIL


Is there an election in Johns Creek? Does anyone care? Incumbents Karen Richardson, Liz Hausmann and Randall Johnson, along with Bodker, appear to have jobs for life.


If there is a challenge, Hausmann is likely to get it, as one aspirant is reportedly ready to take her on.


NEW GOVERNOR POLL


Strategic Vision, LLC, a public relations and public affairs agency, announced the results of a three-day poll of 800 likely Georgia voters.  The poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.


Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine 39 percent; Congressman Nathan Deal 13 percent; Secretary of State Karen Handel 12 percent; State Senator Eric Johnson 6 percent; State Representative Austin Scott 3 percent; businessman Ray McBerry; 2 percent; and 25 percent undecided.


ELEPHANTS


“Oxendine continues to lead in this race and hovers right near the 40 percent mark with more support then his two nearest competitors combined,” said company CEO David Johnson. “He is drawing strong support among college educated voters ages 35 to 55.  Also he is cutting into some of Deal’s base in North Georgia and is polling very strong in the Atlanta suburbs outside of North Fulton County.  He is the clear frontrunner in the race.” No kidding, Dave.


Deal, who was beginning to gain some traction since his entry into the race slipped some over the past month particularly among women aged 60 and over who have shifted back to Handel. “Deal is still polling very strongly in his congressional district and in middle Georgia. His challenge is to regain some of the momentum he was showing in June and July. At this point he is competing with Handel and Johnson to become the anti-Oxendine candidate,” added Johnson. Deal is the Fred Thompson of the Georgia Gov. race and we expect him to keep fading and fading and fading…


Madame Secretary Handel regained some of the support that she had lost in July in the Atlanta suburbs and among female voters, the poll revealed. Her gain was directly at Deal’s expense. Essentially, Handel has moved back into second place. Also noteworthy for her is that many of Sen. Johnson’s supporters would support her without him in the race, more good news for Handel. But Johnson isn’t going away.


“Sen. Johnson is the only other candidate of note in this current poll,” said Johnson. “He improved his poll position slightly over the past month and add that too his fundraising totals, and he could propel himself into the top tier. He is also the second choice of many of Handel’s supporters and a sizable number of Deal’s supporters in North Georgia.”


Our prediction for the run-off: OX-Johnson.


DONKEYS


Former Governor Roy Barnes 45 percent; State Attorney General Thurbert Baker 29 percent; Former State Labor Commissioner, Ex-State Adjutant General Poythress 4 percent; House Minority Leader Dubose Porter 2 percent; and 20 percent undecided.


“While Barnes has a strong lead on the Democratic side, his support in our polling has declined each month since he officially entered the race,” said Johnson.  “The question is how serious is this slippage for Barnes and can any of the other candidates build upon this.  At this point, none have benefited and his lost support is going into the undecided columns.” Barnes is suffering from the age-old quip: “The more I learn about him, the more I don’t like him.” Plus the AJC loves him, which insures his defeat.


Prediction: Baker takes out Barnes in the run-off.


I wish this race were like the old NIT Basketball Tournaments at Madison Square Garden. My father couldn’t ever afford the tickets to the finals, so we always went to the “consolation game” which was much cheaper. I would pay half price to see Barnes and Deal go at it for the “old and tired trophy.” Deal is one scandal away from political oblivion while Barnes is listening to somebody – probably his lawyer donors. A basketball game between them could really be fun. The best part: it doesn’t matter who wins, they both lost anyway.

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