HERE COMES BAKER

We've been saying for months that the Democrat nominee for Governor in 2010 will be Attorney General Thurbert Baker, not former Governor Roy "King Rat" Barnes. Now the numbers are finally starting to move in Baker's direction. And it's still five months before the primary. There is nowhere to go for Barnes in this race but down. Barnes woke up to a new poll on Thursday that shows him "fading" against all likely Republican nominees for Governor, even though he’s better known than all the other Democrats. Just like the rest of the candidates, Barnes will now have to go out and make a case for his nomination instead of acting like he’s already won it. But it's not a total loss for the former $22 million gubernatorial re-election loser. Polls still show him beating Ray McBerry.

Meanwhile, the erstwhile conservative AG Baker trudges along -- which is his style -- gaining on his chief opponent every day. Once the Baker camp solidifies their downtown evangelical minority base, it's light out. There simply aren't enough wealthy trial lawyers in Barnes blackberry contact list to save him. Baker is now in the midst of coalescing the same black voter base that former U.S. Senate candidate Vernon Jones galvanized in his first ballot of thumping of Jim Martin in the July 2008 Democrat primary. And Baker is more conservative than Jones -- without the baggage that the notorious former Dekalb CEO lugged around.

KAREN CATCHES FIRE

On the GOP side Karen Handel may be finally finding her "sea legs." Sources tell us she is attracting huge audiences for her "town-hall" style appearances, and grass roots enthusiasm may be starting to manifest in her campaign. One prominent Republican official told me that Handel set an attendance record for a Saturday breakfast in South Fulton and got interrupted with rousing ovations several times during her remarks. "She's approaching rock-star status with some rank and files Republicans," the GOP leader said.

The same Rasmussen poll we referenced above showed her holding the biggest lead of the GOP candidates over Barnes with the best favorable to unfavorable spreads.

Trying to capitalize on her newly minted momentum, Handel injected herself in the state budget calamity this week by calling for thousands of state employees to be laid off to help make up the $1 billion budget shortfall Georgia is facing for 2011. Speaking to reporters in an impromptu news conference, Madame Secretary said her plan would save $404 million for fiscal year 2011, which begins July 1. Although she did not unveil a complementary detailed plan for finding the other $600 million in necessary cuts that lawmakers are now struggling with, she said raising taxes is the wrong idea. Handel said her proposal is about a structural change to state government. Either way, give her credit for saying something and forwarding an idea of substance.

Handel's biggest handicap right now is cash. She's running out of money. Both John Oxendine and Eric Johnson hold huge cash on hand advantages, and her campaign staff is top-heavy with a plethora of high-priced consultants on what is surely a bloated weekly payroll. That's very problematic for her candidacy as this race enters the stretch drive in May. Plus she has that albatross around her neck called Sonny Perdue.

Right now we still believe Oxendine will come in first in the July GOP primary, so the real battle is for second place, and a spot in the run-off. That leaves Handel, Johnson and Nathan Deal to battle it out. Deal is analogous to a dead man walking. So it's Johnson Vs. Handel. Too close to call, and we're still waiting for Johnson to say something riveting. School vouchers isn’t the silver bullet to win this race. In fact, they covertly hurt him with wealthy suburban Republican voters. So where's the beef, senator? Timing, we suppose, is everything.

LORI HENRY FOR HANDEL

Former Roswell councilwoman and recently defeated mayoral candidate Lori Henry endorsed Handel this week and agreed to chair her Roswell campaign. This is a local coup for the Handel team, as Henry had previously endorsed Mark Burkhalter -- even before the former House Speaker made a final decision. Burkhalter ultimately decided against running for governor last May. Sources close to Henry have told us the former mayoral aspirant is gearing up to run for city council in 2011 -- against her one-time protégé Rich Dippolito. If Henry follows through, she'll crush the first term councilman like so many lemons in a drink blender. Look for the Henry camp to recruit Bruce Peoples to run on her slate against Councilwoman Becky Wynn, also up for reelection in 2011. A "Henry -Peoples" ticket is curtains for Wynn and Dippolito. It's also Roswell Councilman Jerry Orlans' worst nightmare scenario. If Henry indeed runs and wins big, she's the favorite for Roswell mayor in 2013, when current mayor Jere Wood retires. Orlans has wanted to be mayor forever, but he's always odd man out. History is likely to repeat itself for Orlans next go around, too.

THE PATH TO A BELLE ISLE STATE SENATE VICTORY

Our resident Beacon political bookmaker has him at 19-1, but here's a scenario for a David Belle Isle upset victory in his D-56 state senate GOP primary race against Brandon Beach and John Albers. First, he has to quell rumors about his "withdrawal" from the race. The sooner he announces unequivocally that he is resigning from Alpharetta city council the better.

Second, he needs to go right after Alber's Roswell base, branding himself as the "economic conservative" in the race without the evangelical fire and brimstone that Albers has injected in the campaign. Albers is banking on a huge church vote. But the voting history of North Fulton doesn't make that a likely scenario. Mike Huckabee won the Georgia presidential primary, but he came in third in North Fulton- behind Mitt Romney and John McCain. So Belle Isle needs to peel away conservative support from Albers by changing the focus from religion to economics.

Third, he needs to make Roswell his battleground. If he can come in a close third in Roswell, behind Albers and Beach, and places second to Beach in Alpharetta and Sandy Springs -- Albers is facing a Sandy Springs Armageddon come July -- he'll hit the "Daily Double" by both holding Beach under 50 percent to force a run-off and squeaking into second place.

If Belle Isle gets into the August run-off with Beach, he's got a real shot, but only if Handel makes it on the same ballot. Beach is not on Steve and Karen Handel's Christmas party list. A huge female turnout for Handel gives Belle Isle a chance at the upset if he can get her to appear with him at a few well-placed local rallies, take a photo and do a few mailings with them on stage in the final days. This is the strategy Vernon Jones used with then presidential candidate Barrack Obama in 2008. Jones got nearly 40 percent of the vote in his first ballot win over the Democrat machine candidate, Martin. You do the math. So is Belle Isle worth a Ben Franklin at 19-1 odds? Short answer: yes.

JONES WORRIED ABOUT HOLDING MAJORITY

Jan Jones says there are a number of House seats that are ripe for Democrat picking in 2010 if the state’s GOP majority fails to solve the state’s problems this session. “There a number of vulnerable seats that we need to protect in November,” Jones said. “We need to do what it takes to grow our 91-seat majority” and not go backwards, Jones emphasized at a Republican gathering last week. Jones was optimistic that her leadership team could get the job done.