Our resident Beacon political odds-makers have just posted new wagering lines on the various upcoming elections. This is a collaborative effort, modeled closely after the process the big Vegas hotels use prior to positing wagering lines on sporting events. In wagering vernacular, these are called “political futures.” Our chief “lines-maker” is Beacon sports editor John Breech. I am his research assistant. Before you bet the farm (if you live in Milton) or the house, keep in mind that at different times in our lives both Breech and I gambled (legally) as a full-time profession. Both of us now work at The Beacon, so that caveat should tell you enough. For the record, he did sports, I did horses; quite frankly, I lasted a lot longer than he did, so keep that in mind when you place your proverbial office pool wager. Naturally, I’ll let you know my “selections” at the end. Keep in mind my “picks” have more to do with the posted “odds” and less to do who I think will win. When I play the horses, my formula is to look for the horse with the best shot to win at the longest odds. I seldom play the favorite, but sometimes it’s worth it. I also only bet to win, and I never make an “exotic wager.”

GEORGIA GOVERNOR - NOMINATION WINNER - GOP

2:1       John Oxendine
9:2       Nathan Deal
5:1       Karen Handel
7:1       Eric Johnson
16:1      Austin Scott
100:1    Jeff Chapman
900:1    Ray McBerry

GEORGIA GOVERNOR - NOMINATION WINNER - DEM

3:5       Roy Barnes
6:1       Thurbert Baker
12:1     David Poythress
30:1     DuBose Porter

MY SELECTIONS

I don’t like the low odds on either of the favorites. I like Johnson at 7:1 and Baker at 6:1. So I bet $40 to win on Johnson and $100 to win on Baker. I love Baker at 6:1 in this race.

DISTRICT 56 - STATE SENATE - NOMINATION WINNER - GOP

8:5     Brandon Beach
4:1     John Albers
19:1   David Belle Isle

MY SELECTIONS

I originally bet Wendell Willard at 7:2 but he got scratched from the race, so I got my money back. I don’t like to bet low odds, but Beach is the horse to beat, he should go wire to wire and never look back. I bet $100 to win on Beach.

SECRETARY OF STATE - NOMINATION WINNER - GOP

4:5   Brian Kemp
8:1   Doug MacGinnitie

MY SELECTIONS

No way I’d lay 4:5 on a colt sired by Perdue. He’s the biggest “stud bust” this side of Dubai. Besides, Kemp's Perdue pedigree made the judges add weight to his saddlebags. I bet $200 to win on MacGannitie. At 8:1, this play makes it my best bet on the race card. MacGannitie catches Kemp at the wire with a furious stretch run and wins by a neck. 

MILTON COUNTY RUNNING OUT OF TIME-AND VOTES?

A veteran politico has told us Milton County is a non-starter in the 2010 General Assembly. The person calculates Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones (R-Milton) is 15 votes short of the two-thirds super majority she needs to win approval in the House. Last year at this time, Mark Burkhalter acknowledged they were five votes short, so the their support has slipped year over year. Beyond that, the insider doubts Jones will bring it to a floor vote. "If Jones dares take this to the well, the downtown Democrats will band together and brand her a racist," goes the analysis, "tarnishing her image for years to come. Why would she risk that for an amendment she can’t win anyway?"

I know Jan Jones well enough to know that she could care less about any political fallout, and she is the last elected official in Georgia to be intimated by the left-wing press pundits. But I’m now convinced she doesn’t have the votes this year, and the timing is just not conducive to getting this done. So Milton County looks DOA for now.

HANLEY TO RUN FOR STATE GOP CHAIR?

Insiders at the Fulton County and state GOP have told me they are urging Fulton County Republican Chairman Shawn Hanley to run for state party chairman next year. If Hanley runs, he’d be a force to be reckoned with, and would likely enter the race to replace current Chairman Sue Everhardt as the favorite. Hanley has revitalized the Fulton County GOP in nearly historic fashion, taking it from a lackluster and broke old man’s country club to a powerhouse political organization. Hanley has grown membership, invested in cutting edge technology, revamped its digital prowess and energized a potent volunteer base. If Hanley does indeed run for the state post, and I believe he will, then there is sure to be a battle royale for his replacement at the county level. The smart money is on Circle R Chairman Roger Bonds, from North Fulton. Bonds has worked tirelessly in the North part of the county to assist Hanley in building the party, he is well respected and very well liked. He’d be the man to beat if he gets in the race. Plus, he has a bag of “IOU” chips that could fill a circus tent. If he runs, they’ll all come due. At once. 

BELLE ISLE IS STAYING IN THE RACE FOR STATE SENATE

The incessant political rumors that have Alpharetta Councilman David Belle Isle opting out of the District 56 State Senate race are a combination of wishful thinking by his two opponents -- Brandon Beach and John Albers -- and silly gossip grounded in pure innuendo. Belle Isle is staying in the race, and his presence will ultimately hurt Albers’ chances. Come April, Belle Isle will be competing for Albers’ political base of movement and evangelical conservatives in Roswell. The electoral math in this race now overwhelmingly favors Beach for one reason: Sandy Springs. The lower half of the district represents about 30 percent of the total vote count. Belle Isle’s Tea Party mantra doesn’t play as well there and Albers’s fire and brimstone, sermon style “God told me to run this race” message will likely backfire in a community that is predominantly Jewish. I now believe Albers may finish third, behind Belle Isle.

GABE STERLING TO TOPPLE TOM LOWE?

Several County GOP officials have told me that Republican political campaign consultant Gabe Sterling is seriously contemplating a primary challenge to Tom Lowe (R-Sandy Springs) for his Fulton County Commission seat. Lowe, who has held the seat since Reconstruction, is one of two Republicans on the Commission, along with Lynne Riley (R-Johns Creek). Lowe has played footsie with the county budget this year, voting for spending increases that Riley adamantly opposed. That alone makes him vulnerable to a conservative challenge. Lowe has $400,00 in his campaign war chest, but Sterling is no fundraising slouch. If Gabe gets in, Lowe is in serious trouble to win re-nomination.

TOM MILLER EYES ANOTHER ALPHARETTA COUNCIL RUN

Cox Enterprises executive and Windward Homeowners Association honcho Tom Miller, who lost a close Alpharetta Council election to Chris Owens (John Keim finished third) in November, is reportedly gearing up to take another shot. But this time he wants to run in the July 20 primary special election, presumably for Belle Isle’s seat, which he will have to give up when he files for state senate on April 20. According to Miller and Keim’s supporters, the two one-time opponents--both from Windward--agreed not to run against each other again. Most political observers believe that Keim cut deeply into Miller’s Windward electoral stronghold, thus handing the victory to Owens. This scenario has Miller running in July and Keim in November. Politics, as they say, make strange bedfellows.