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August 22nd, 2009
John Fredericks / Staff

Handicapping The Georgia Governor Race


I will attempt to handicap the Georgia governor race as it stands now like i would bet on a horse race, and share my wagers with you. 


North Fulton Radio Show on WGKA-920 AM debuts August 30


We are very excited to be launching the first radio show ever devoted exclusively to North Fulton County, which debuts on August 30. The show, “Breakfast With The Beacon,” (it’s “breakfast” because none of our journalists wake up before 10:45 a.m.) will air each Sunday morning from 11:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m. on AM Radio 920-WGKA. The format is divided into two thirty-minute segments. The first half hour is “Behind the Bleachers with John Breech.” Breech, Beacon sports editor, will be focusing on North Fulton High School Football throughout the season. His first guest on the August 30 show will be Milton Eagles Head Coach Scott Walker. Breech and I will be broadcasting the Eagles home opener against the ‘Hooch on Friday night on Beaconcast.com and Coach Walker tends to be a little surly after a home loss so I’m not sitting anywhere near him if the Eagles lose on Friday.


The second segment is “Political InSighter” with me as your host from 11:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. Our portion of the show will center on North Fulton and statewide politics. The guests for next Sunday are the three Roswell mayoral campaign political strategists: Randy Whatley for David Tolleson, Paul Kaplan for Lori Henry and Bruce Peoples for Jere Wood. Needless to say we expect a little fireworks as each consultant gives their take on the race, and their candidate’s standing. No doubt we’ll ask each who they thought won last weeks historic mayoral debate.


So tune in to radio 920-AM / WGKA next Sunday at 11 a.m.! The entire show will be available on beaconcast.com every Monday.


Handicapping the Gov Race


I trained racehorses for a living prior to commencing my journalism career. No doubt some readers wish I stayed at the racetrack. At any rate, I had success both on the track with my horses and at the “windows,” as it’s called (track lingo for “gambling”). When I got out of training I became a professional “handicapper,” and earned my keep through betting at various racetracks for about a year. So I will attempt to handicap the Georgia governor race as it stands now, and share my wagers with you. I have three rules of thumb when handicapping horse-races: never bet a less than even money favorite, don’t bet maiden races or maidens (horses that have never won a race) and make two bets per race to win only: the one you believe will win and the longer shot with better odds PROVIDED that you think it has a legitimate shot. This philosophy seldom failed me financially. So here goes.


Georgia Governor Nomination / GOP / Odds


Oxendine. 7:5. The favorite for now, a perennial front-runner, he’s going to try to wire the field. But he could falter in the stretch, as he’s never run a mile and a half, which this race is, in this tough of a field.


Deal. 9:5. He’s won the most money in his long career and rates above this class but he has not been tested for a while, and has raced against lower rated horses for a long time. Has the pedigree and comes from a renowned stable, but is he the Fred Thompson of this race?


Handel. 7:1. The lone filly in the field, she has won every race she’s been in, but this is a big step-up in class for her. She’s the closer in the race, and usually comes from off the pace with a furious stretch run to catch the leaders at the wire. But the early speed in the race may be too much to overcome. The longer race gives her a shot, though, but the frontrunner has to falter.


Johnson. 12:1. This is the dark horse of the race. A tested competitor, he has cleaned up at southern racetracks. He also likes the rain, and a muddy track may favor him. Could stay close enough to make a bid around the 1-mile marker, this horse has shown both early and late speed. He’s the wild card.


Scott. 100:1. Not a bad looking colt, has some potential in the future, so this may be a good test for him to get in there with the top class of the meet. But he’s never raced against a field like this, and may need at least one of these under his belt to get ready for the next big one.


McBerry. Scratched. He’s lame.


GOP Handicapper Wagers


I like Oxendine, even at 7:5, which are low odds for me. He has a shot to go wire to wire, and should hold on. $200 to win.


I also love Johnson at 12:1. He has a shot if he can stay within striking distance coming out of the last turn, and could sweep past all of them at the sixteenth poll. He loves to sneak up the rail, and in a furious stretch run with the filly coming four wide, the rail may open for him. $50 to win.


Georgia Governor Nomination / DEM / Odds


Barnes. 2:5. Everybody’s best bet, the prohibitive favorite. Has all the factors going his way except one: weight. The race steward has added significant weight to his saddle so he has a lot of baggage to haul around. If this race were five or six furloughs, he’d be a shoo-in. But at a mile and a half, that extra weight he has to lug around could start taking its toll as he lumbers around the final turn. I hear his barn unplugged his ears and took off the blinders, so that may make a difference.


Baker. 7:2. This is the most dangerous horse in both races. Steady, with both early and late speed, he’s won a lot of races in both small and big racetracks. He has the perfect lineage and comes from a powerhouse stable. Expect him to stay within striking distance of the frontrunner Barnes until the final turn, where he  should make his move down the lane.


Porter. 20:1 This is a tough one, I just don’t know. He’s a very competitive and very seasoned racehorse and he kind of hangs around the leaders and waits for a spot to charge. But to win, he’d have to go three deep around both Barnes and Baker in the stretch and that’s a lot to ask.


Poythress. 75:1. He’s training at a horse farm somewhere off the racetrack so we can’t rate his workouts, but the “bar talk” is his trainer has some surprise up his sleeve. Who knows? I usually dismiss those “racetrack” rumors and I need to see him compete first to give consideration. Plus he lost his last race convincingly. 


DEM Handicapper Wagers


I love Baker at 7:2 in this race. I think the added weight catches up to Barnes coming around the clubhouse turn and Baker catches him at the top of the stretch and never looks back. $200 to win.


For my “exotic” wager I’ll bet a $50 Daily Double wheel with Baker and Oxendine, Deal and Johnson, which will cost me $150, so I’ve put down a total of $600. If it turns out to be Baker-Johnson as the two winners, I’ll cash three nice tickets and win enough for a down payment on a house in Country Club of the South!

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