By John Fredericks / Staff

You go girl.

Independent Fulton County Commission Chairman candidate Mary Norwood is the Republican Party's new best friend.

She's also incumbent Commission Chairman John Eaves' (D) worst nightmare.

Norwood's Independent candidacy spells doom for Eaves, while giving county Republicans real hope of gaining a reform majority on the County Commission come next January.

Politically, Norwood says she's "fiscally conservative, socially responsible and personally accountable." Her Independent county chairman campaign, in its development stages, is based on what she calls "a strong voice -- and another choice."

Norwood is not a Republican, but she has demonstrated surprising strength across the political spectrum. In her mayoral run, she put together the ultimate rainbow coalition: conservatives, liberals, Independents, gays, evangelicals, blacks, whites, Hispanics, you name it, she got a piece of it. Voters who know her trust her and like her. In this race, she claims, the need to reform an inept county government universally recognized for high taxes and low service cuts across partisan lines. For Norwood, as well as at-large District 2 candidate  Lori Henry,  "R" stands for "reform" and "D" stands for "develop."

But most critical for Norwood's candidacy in the short term is her organization's ability to obtain 23,000 valid Fulton County voter signatures on her Independent candidate petition by July 13. Georgia has some of the most restrictive laws governing Independents in the nation. There are about 500,000 registered voters in the county, so Norwood needs just about percent of the total vote pool to qualify.

But in reality she'll likely need about 35,000 signatures to be safe, as Eaves' election lawyers are sure to scrutinize every petition signature one by one, searching for any mistake or error to challenge every signature they determine the least bit irregular.

It'll be like hanging chads on steroids at the Eaves campaign headquarters come July 14.

BONDS THE SIGNATURE MAN

That's why GOP Fulton county official Roger Bonds is running Norwood's petition drive in North Fulton, even though a legitimate Republican candidate is on the ballot. When questioned, Bonds proclaimed, "The age of stupid is over," and said it was high time to reform the county commission with no more excuses. "Regarding my position in the Fulton County Republican Party, I'm not going to have blind loyalty to any one mantra. We are now making crucial decisions to protect our families, our businesses and our property. The next election is a break point in history. This is about fixing the county and reforming a disastrous government for the good of all Fulton residents," Bonds explained. "That's not partisan. That's just smart."

Bonds said he would continue to help Norwood get on the November ballot. "Voters deserve another voice, and another choice. Mary will force a serious debate of the issues, and we, the Fulton county voters, can decide what to do come Election Day."

THE NORWOOD FACTOR: LORI'S DEFACTO REFORM MATE

As for signature challenges, the Norwood brain trust is ready. Just having emerged from a grueling Atlanta mayoral run-off, they experienced first hand the wrath and election havoc the downtown Democrat machine can reap on an opponent if their power base is threatened. And Norwood – once again – represents the greatest hazard to their entrenched efficacy.

ELECTION DYNAMICS 

Assuming Norwood qualifies as an Independent candidate for Fulton County Commission Chairman, here is how the election dynamics play out.

Let's start with Henry's (R) race against incumbent Robb Pitts (D) for the other at-large county commission seat.

Under normal circumstances, Henry, as a North Fulton Republican, enters the race a decided underdog. The electoral math for a GOP countywide victory doesn’t work, as Democrats and liberal Independents enjoy a numerical advantage over rank and file Republicans and moderates.

But Henry is the perfect candidate for this race. Seasoned, fearless and poised, her message of reforming a broken government -- with the credentials to back it up -- gets her election numbers closer to Pitts than otherwise normal. Henry will campaign vigorously in Atlanta, and go right into Pitts base, as she fights for every vote, including on the south side. But even with a vibrant campaign in a big Republican year, which 2010 promises to be, she tops out at about 45 to 46 percent. A good showing, but no cigar.

ENTER NORWOOD

The Norwood campaign, on the ballot ahead of Henry - Pitts, does two things for the former Roswell councilwoman and mayoral candidate. First, Norwood's presence on the ticket will attract a bigger voter turnout in the commission races. Those new voters will be participating for one reason: to cast their ballot for Mary Norwood, who will also be running on a reform agenda, like Henry.

If they only came to the party to vote for Norwood, why would they go one spot down and vote for Pitts, who represents the status quo? Change is change.

Second, those Democrats, Independents and more moderate Republicans who vote for Norwood are also choosing reform and change. If not, they'd stick with Eaves, the incumbent. Why vote for reform on one ballot line and no reform on the next line?

Besides, if their candidate Norwood wins, she can't change anything if she's in the minority.

Logic says that some of them, who may normally push the "D" column and vote for Pitts, will cross over to the other reform candidate, Henry, who like Norwood, ran for mayor and took on an immovable bureaucracy.

If Norwood gets thirty percent of the vote in her chairman race, and Henry is the beneficiary of just one out of every three Norwood voters, or about thirty percent, she topples Pitts. This is a real scenario that is very likely to play out. It doesn't matter if Norwood runs as the Lone Ranger or not. She and Henry will, by default, share a policy and agenda that will resonate with voters, regardless. The two candidates are similar in agenda, philosophy, stature, personality and policy.

If Norwood indeed qualifies and Henry does what she's capable of, the GOP will win District 2. Hello Lori. Goodbye Robb.

Then the makeup of the county commission is three Republicans and three Democrats. The county chairman race then determines the balance of power -- and reform.

EAVES VS. NORWOOD VS. BROADBENT

Shifting to the race for county commission chairman, District 1, there are three potential outcomes. We'll start with the most likely result first.

GOP nominee Steve Broadbent comes to the campaign with a robust and powerful resume. A retired Naval Commander and former Bush administration Treasury Department official, Broadbent is a serious and articulate candidate. He'll hold his own with the trio, and is expected to galvanize a substantial vote in North Fulton.

But Norwood will undoubtedly siphon off moderate Republicans and Independent voters that would normally be in the Broadbent column. Let's call it 30 percent. That puts Broadbent in the 28 to 33 percent range on election night.

If Norwood's coalition pulls 30 percent of the would-be Republican vote, where will her other 70 percent pull from?
You guessed it: John Eaves.

The likely outcome on election eve is a runoff in December.

If Broadbent comes in third, and it's Norwood - Eaves in a December runoff, what happens?

This is where Henry comes into play. If she has already defeated Pitts, then the runoff between Norwood and Eaves is for county control. Imagine a December election where Republicans in North Fulton can elect Norwood to gain a working majority and reform the county? GOP turnout will be massive. Couple that with Norwood backers, many of whom believe their candidate was short-changed by vote shenanigans in her last run-off, and Eaves is toast.

A similar scenario plays out for Broadbent if he gets in the runoff with Eaves. Historical voter trends show that Republicans win December runoffs. Just look at the last two U.S. Senate races that went beyond November. Paul Coverdell upset the Democrat incumbent, Wyche Fowler in 1992, and Republican Saxby Chambliss annihilated Jim Martin in 2008.

Eaves has only two chances of hanging onto the county chairmanship. The first is to deny Norwood ballot access. The second is to help Pitts defeat Henry, and get in the runoff with Norwood. Then North Fulton Republicans, already destined to another four years in the commission minority, start dreaming about re-creating Milton county and go Christmas shopping on December 7, yawning as they pass their polling places.

So for Norwood, a Henry victory becomes all too critical for her ultimate electoral chances. She may say she's neutral in public, but the legacy of "Little Miss Lori" will likely determine Norwood's political destiny.