ROSWELL SHOWDOWN

And then there were two.

Don’t miss the last - and perhaps most important - debate of the local campaign season. It’s a pre-Thanksgiving showdown between Roswell Mayor Jere Wood and former councilman David Tolleson. The debate is scheduled for Tuesday, November 24th at 6 p.m. at Moksha Restaurant, 1380 Old Roswell Road in Roswell.

The Beacon is sponsoring the debate and the format is simple: 8 questions. 80 minutes. Winner takes all.

Each candidate will get to ask his opponent four questions, and there will be ample time for point-counter point responses. The format is wide open, all the questions come from each candidate and it’s designed to flush the issues out. All The Beacon will do is tee it up and manage the time clock. It should be a humdinger. Wood is in, but Tolleson had not confirmed by press-time.

EAST VS WEST

The upcoming Roswell mayoral run-off is classic East vs. West. It’s like the old Blue-Grey college football game they used to play after the season was over when I was a kid.

Naturally, we gambled on the Blue-Gray game (we gambled on everything in those days – I remember betting the “over” on George Wallace in the ‘68 election – I won) so I will post the morning line odds. Money Line: Tolleson $100 -$180. Point spread (in terms of vote percentage): Wood +3.5. Sorry if you don’t know what those mean. If you need help, email our sports editor John Breech at jbreech@beaconcast.com for an explanation.

Factions inside the Tolleson camp are whining about be their man being branded in the media as an “East Roswell” geographical candidate.  I can sympathize with them, being that their campaign slogan is “Tolleson: For All of Roswell.”

The truth is, after the vote count last week, how can they even say their slogan with a straight face?

Here are numbers: Tolleson received 1,100 votes, representing 33 percent of his city wide vote total from three east Roswell precincts, two of which were along the Old Alabama Road corridor. Tolleson ran at about twenty percent everywhere else.

However, Tolleson remains the favorite to win the mayoral run-off, with or without Lori Henry’s endorsement. His voters will turn out again. Will Wood’s? It’s a tougher dial-up. Here is what wins run-offs: turnout and ground games. Tolleson has a superior ground game. They will get their people out. This puts Wood at a huge disadvantage. How much will Henry help? It depends on the extent she can motivate her base. Early indications are it could be a game changer for Wood.

KEIM FOR ALPHARETTA COUNCIL- IN JULY?

Look for recently defeated Alpharetta City Council candidate John Keim to run again – this time in July for what will be a special election for David Belle Isle’s seat. Once Belle Isle files to run for the state senate in April, he is forced to resign from city council, which will cause a special election that will be held in conjunction with the July 2010 primary.

The math works for Keim. He ran a very respectable race –garnering over 800 votes, as the conservative “Send them a message” council candidate. His platform resonated with a lot of voters. In a July special election, Keim can appeal to conservative GOP primary voters who will be showing up to vote in the gubernatorial and state senate race – and there is John Keim on the Alpharetta municipal ballot. Bottom line: if he runs, he wins, as the electoral dynamic is ready made for his message.

HANDEL COMING TO JOE’S HOUSE! WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?

I got an email from Tina D’Aversa inviting me to a Karen Handel for Governor function at Milton Mayor Joe Lockwood’s house on Tuesday, November 17 (Tina loves email). Normally we don’t cover these “meet and greets” but this time I decided to attend, just on the chance that history could repeat itself.

The last time D’Aversa went to Lockwood’s house she brought in two of the mayor’s opponents running for City Council – and then endorsed them in his living room. So I figure maybe she’ll sneak John Oxendine in through the back door and make a surprise endorsement of him while no one is looking?

IGLEHEART IS ENDORSING WOOD?

Beam me up, Scotty. Roswell Councilman Kent Igleheart is set to endorse Roswell Mayor Jere Wood tomorrow night at City Hall at 7 p.m. For the last eight years, these two have driven each other nuts. So what gives?

Igleheart, who served with Tolleson on City Council for eight years, doesn’t think much of his former colleague’s “consensus building” agenda. We’ll hear the full details Monday and I’ll post his comments on beaconcast.com before the Monday Night football game.

IS PRICE­­­ STAYING NEUTRAL?

Newly elected and just sworn in Roswell Councilwoman Betty Price has vowed to stay out of the mayoral run-off, and remain neutral. However, Price delivered a big block of votes for Wood on Election Day in west Roswell, and if she weighs in for Wood, along with Henry and Igleheart, Wood would become the odds-on favorite to win, bucking the edge Tolleson now enjoys. One thing I learned a long time ago in politics: always expect the unexpected. To coin a line from James Carville, “If ifs were fifths and cant’s were cans – we’d all be drunk by now.”

MILTON COUNTY COMING?

GOP Majority Whip Jan Jones (R-Milton) has flatly predicted that the state constitutional amendment to allow the creation of Milton County will pass both the House and Senate this session. “I believe we have the votes,” Jones said on our election night T.V. broadcast.

WILL THE CITY OF MILTON GO BELLY-UP?

Fulton County Commissioner Lynne Riley (R-Johns Creek) is forecasting an average decline of up to 15 percent in home and commercial property values in FY 2010-11. If Riley’s findings are even close to the mark that means every Fulton County municipality could see a decrease of up to 15 percent in their property tax revenue digest next year. A quick calculation shows that the City of Milton would go bankrupt under that scenario without a tax increase. One Beacon blogger emailed in this suggestion: “Let the city go belly-up and then the whole municipality can get annexed by Alpharetta.” The idea may not be as far fetched as it sounds.