Monday June 13, 2010 (Atlanta)  -- Here is my take on who has to do what in tonight's big New Hampshire GOP debate: 

The Most To Lose 

Mitt Romney, the poll leader, and Herman Cain, the up and comer, have the most to lose tonight. Romney can't play it safe. So he has to focus on the economy, and his jobs plan, like a laser beam. Getting sucked into social issues is his nemesis. It's the economy, stupid: that's Romney's power play and he has to stay with it. 

Cain has raised expectations, so he has to follow-up his South Carolina stellar performance with another wing-dinger. But this will be harder for him tonight than it was last month. Look for Pawlenty to challenge one or two of his positions, and see how Cain responds to the broadside. Cain has nowhere to go now but down, as the competition stiffens. He has to win this debate via the follow-up polls or he looks like a one-trick pony. 

The Most To Gain 

Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty have the most upside tonight. They each need to score big with an "ah-ha" moment -- and get noticed. Bachmann needs to become the Tea Party mantra holder, and make Palin backers wish Bachmann was McCain's VP choice instead of Sarah. Bachmann has to compete with -- or replace Cain -- as the evangelical and Tea Party darling. She has the charisma to do it. But a poor performance by her tonight relegates the Congresswoman to third-tier status. 

Pawlenty has to gain the confidence of mainstream and business oriented Republicans and convince them that he has the best plan for the country and best shot to defeat Obama. He also has to demonstrate he's a true conservative on cutting taxes and slashing spending.

Pawlenty must take dead aim at Romney and show he is the most viable Republican to solve the nation's economic woes. If he can do that tonight, he can take off. This debate has the potential to be a game changer for Pawlenty -- at Romney's expense. 

The Most At Stake 

Newt Gingrich has to show viewers why, despite his campaign implosion and personal idiosyncrasies, he is still the intellectual giant among midgets who can annihilate Obama in a debate. If his campaign is going to be solutions based, he'd better have some salient ideas to roll out  -- and he must be succinct. A poor or lackluster performance tonight effectively ends Newt's candidacy Tuesday morning. A great showing can keep him in game -- for awhile. 

It Is What It Is 

Ron Paul just has to be, well, Ron Paul. He has his base locked in, so he just needs to keep his corps of die-hards fired up.

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