Politics /
Republicans Continue To Hold Congressional Lead (06.28.11)
Republicans hold a seven-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 26.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44 percent of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 37 percent would choose the Democrat instead. This is almost identical to findings for the previous three weeks.
The GOP has been consistently ahead on the Generic Ballot since June 2009, leading by as much as 12 points and as little as two. The week before Election Day last November, support for Republicans peaked at 51 percent, the highest level of support either party has enjoyed in the last two years, but GOP support tapered off after that. This marks the 14th week in a row that Republican support has fallen in the narrow range of 41 percent to 44 percent.
Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot - 42 percent to 35 percent when Barack Obama took office as president in late January 2009, but their support has generally remained in the mid- to upper 30's since June of that year. Republicans began to close the gap following the stimulus debate in February 2009.
Republicans lead by 16 points among male voters, while Democrats have a two-point edge among female voters. Democrats continue to lead among voters under 40, while Republicans are on top among their elders.
It is worth noting that during 2006 and 2008, Democrats led on the Generic Congressional Ballot and also were trusted more than Republicans on the health care issue. Following passage of the president's health care proposal, the Republicans became the more trusted party on health care and also took the lead on the Generic Ballot. In January of this year, Republicans held a 14-point advantage on the health care issue, but that has disappeared.
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